The final round of the marathon that has been South American World Cup qualifying concludes on Wednesday night with Uruguay entertaining its biggest rival, Argentina, at the historic Centenario Stadium in Montevideo. That’s the same venue where the two countries met back in the 1930 World Cup final, where the home side defeated its River Plate neighbor, 4-2.
It’s only a qualifier this time, but the stakes are as high, especially for the Uruguayans. They’re facing a must-win match to assure themselves of the fifth and final spot in South America, which would send them into a playoff against Oceania champions Australia (a team they destroyed in the same spot four years ago).
Argentina, on the other hand, comes into the clásico on top of the South American group with 34 points, having qualified for soccer’s biggest tournament way back in June. But the Argentines insist that they will come to Montevideo focused on taking home the three points, and winning the group in style.
But is that how it will go down? Back in the 2002 World Cup qualifying campaign, the teams met in an almost identical situation in the final round. Uruguay needed at least a point, which it picked up without much effort in a draw.
What is of great concern to both Colombia and Chile — the two teams that still have a mathematical chance of overtaking Uruguay and qualifying for the playoff — is how seriously Argentina will take the match. Four years ago it was widely speculated that the Uruguayans and Argentines arranged the tie, a result that was enough to send Uruguay through, while the Colombians were knocked out by goal differential.
Although the two matches were played simultaneously, what caught the attention of most observers was that Paraguay, which had already qualified for the World Cup, was trailing 4-0 at home against Colombia, and the away side needed one more goal to advance to the playoff instead of Uruguay. That dubious final round left FIFA concerned about possible match-fixing, but for some reason, the case wasn’t investigated further.
Four years later, we have yet to see how seriously Argentina, Paraguay and Ecuador will take their final qualifiers. For fans, it’s a different story. A recent poll conducted by the Buenos Aires newspaper La Nación revealed that 52 percent of the 52,000 polled would prefer Argentina to win and pick up the three points. No surprise there. But more than 41 percent preferred their country to lose against Uruguay so their geographic neighbor can qualify for the playoff instead of Colombia or Chile.
The last time Uruguay defeated Argentina in an important match was almost 20 years ago — a 1-0 victory in the 1987 Copa America semifinals, shocking the hosts and defending World Cup champs, who were captained by Argentina’s greatest son, Diego Maradona. But since then, thanks in part to Uruguay’s tumble down the soccer hierarchy, the Argentines have had a strong hold on their smaller neighbor, and haven’t lost in their last five World Cup qualifiers against La Celeste.
It hardly needs to be said that it won’t be easy for the Uruguayans on Wednesday night, but another major statistic plays in their favor: Uruguay has never lost a World Cup qualifier at home against Argentina, picking up six wins and three draws in nine matches dating back to 1917. Historically, the countries are very even. Both have won the World Cup twice and share the record for Copa America title wins with 14 each — twice as many as Brazil
Not only do Uruguay and Argentina have rich histories in international soccer, but they also feature a number of the world’s best soccer players — who play for some of Europe’s top clubs — on their rosters. Argentina boasts the likes of Hernán Crespo, Pablo Aimar, Walter Samuel, Roberto Ayala and Juan Sebastián Verón (who recently has fallen out of favor with Argentina head coach José Pekerman). Uruguay counters with European Golden Boot award winner Diego Forlán, Pablo García, Carlos Diogo, Mario Regueiro and Alvaro Recoba.
But while Argentina can take it easy and rest some of its superstars, Uruguay is in a completely different situation. National team coach Jorge Fossati has stated that he will make several changes to the defensive side that held Ecuador to a valuable scoreless draw in Quito last weekend. He’s likely to bring in the highly rated strike force of Forlán and Marcelo Zalayeta, and will also include Málaga big man Richard Morales in the attack, preferring to utilize Inter Milan’s dangerous Recoba as a playmaker.
Although Pekerman hasn’t confirmed his starting lineup, it’s likely to be a team mixed with starters and substitutes, as he’s still looking to determine the ideal formation Argentina will feature in Germany next summer. In recent interviews, several Argentine players, notably Chelsea’s Crespo, have said they will work to their maximum strengths to overcome the Uruguayans; after all, they’re fighting for World Cup positions.
But even if some of Argentina’s regulars don’t line up against the Uruguay, the Argentine squad comprises a wealth of talent that, without a doubt, can mix it with the best in the world. The Uruguayans have a tough task ahead of them indeed. Win, and they live to fight on for a spot in the World Cup. Lose, and they’ll have another four years to ponder what went wrong.
Gregory Sica
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