South American Futbol - Libertadores, Sudamericana, World Cup 2010

Copa runneth over: My picks for Sudamericana's exciting semi matchups

Copa runneth over: My picks for Sudamericana's exciting semi matchupsOnce upon a time, the Copa Libertadores was South America’s ultimate soccer competition. For many, it still is.

But the much-improved Copa Sudamericana has grown in prominence so much that clubs and fans alike now lust after a tournament that has room only for pulsating knockout matches.

While the expansion of the Libertadores has ballooned to 32 clubs, the selective format of the Sudamericana includes only the cream of the Americas. This year’s semifinals kick off on Wednesday, and there are only four clubs left in the title hunt: Boca Juniors, Universidad Católica, Pumas UNAM and Vélez Sarsfield.

It’s hard to make a call here. On one hand, you’ve got the in-form defending Cup champions in Boca (the Xeneizes defeated Bolivar 2-1 over two legs to win the Cup in ’04), the favorite to repeat at this point. But you never know. After all, I had my money on one of the Brazilian clubs to go all the way — particularly Carlos Tévez‘s Corinthians, who seemed to be too powerful for any opponent.

No one could have predicted that Corinthians — South America’s version of Real Madrid’s Galácticos — would be knocked out by Pumas, the biggest surprise team of the Sudamericana. Pumas can also count Bolivia’s powerful The Strongest to their hit list. Why is all this surprising? In Mexico, Pumas are currently sitting at the bottom of their group with the second-worst record in the league — only three wins in 16 matches.

Pumas’ struggles this season have made it evident that the club is in need of drastic changes. The first to go was manager Hugo Sanchez, Mexico’s greatest son, who was in charge of the club last year when it clinched the domestic double — Clausura and Apertura championships. New boss Miguel España came up with some fresh ideas and made several changes to the team. One notable addition was the inclusion of Argentine striker Bruno Marioni, who wasn’t in Sanchez’s plans.

It’s too late for Pumas to make a move in Mexico, which is why España came to the conclusion that the only way the club can salvage something from the year is by winning the Copa Sudamericana.
“What we are doing in the Cup no other Mexican club has done before,” he said. “We hope to reach the final and win the title.”

But it won’t be so easy. Pumas will be up against Argentine Clausura champion Vélez Sarsfield. Miguel Angel Russo‘s side has stumbled recently in league, losing three of its past four matches, including a heartbreaking 2-0 defeat to rival Boca Juniors last Sunday that may have ended Vélez’s title aspirations.

The only good news is that Vélez gets back some key players who were missing in the previous round of the Cup due to injuries. Strikers Claudio Enría and Rolando Zárate will return, and attacking magician Lucas Castromán is only out another two weeks — he could be a major factor if Vélez can reach the final.

Look for Vélez to get there, in part because Pumas can’t win away from home. But the main thing Vélez has going for it is that it has proved to be deadly on the road. Don’t forget, it picked up a huge 2-0 away win against Mexico’s Club América in the quarterfinals.

The other semifinal, which kicks off in Buenos Aires, is a mouth-watering matchup between Boca Juniors and Chile’s Universidad Católica. Boca is the overwhelming favorite, and it’s unlikely the Chileans will have enough firepower to overcome the Xeneizes.

It’s probably fair to say that Boca has been the most successful South American club in recent years, and this season’s squad could be one of its best. Boca boasts the likes of Rodrigo Palacio, Sebastián Battaglia, Daniel Díaz, Fernando Gago, Martín Palermo, Federico Insúa and Daniel Bilos — all players who can give any opposing club a serious headache.

Manager Alfio Basile has cemented a formidable squad that, until a few weeks ago, looked like a lock to win Argentina’s Apertura championship. But in the past few weeks Boca lost some ground after two consecutive defeats, but recovered just in time last Sunday when it overwhelmed Vélez in the most anticipated match of the year.

Underdog Católica should be happy to get this far, although its recent form suggests it might be able to match an experienced Boca Juniors side. Católica has performed well in the Cup, eliminating bitter rival Universidad de Chile, as well as special invite D.C. United and Fluminense of Rio de Janeiro.

Boca’s potent attack will probably keep Católica’s Argentine goalkeeper, José María Buljabasich, busy, but the Xeneizes can’t ignore the impressive record he holds. The former River Plate No. 1 didn’t allow a single goal in 14 straight Chilean-league matches earlier this season.

Boca must also be aware of the wealth of talent in the Católica squad, including Argentines Darío Conca, Facundo Imboden and Jorge Quinteros, as well as classy Chilean winger Eduardo Rubio, who has been one of the revelations of the tournament.

Católica has been nothing short of magnificent in the Chilean Clausura championship, finishing the regular season in first with an undefeated 15-0-4 record. The Chilean outfit has been a real surprise in the Sudamericana, especially the way it remarkably came back from the dead to knock out D.C. United in the earlier rounds. That psychological advantage helped them overcome Fluminense, a club that has performed well in Brazil this season.

There’s no reason to count Católica out now, but I can’t see the Chileans upsetting Boca on Wednesday. The Argentine club is just too strong, and will have no problem advancing to the final after the second leg on Dec. 1.

Expect to see an all-Buenos Aires title match, and when the dust settles, Boca should again be hoisting the Copa Sudamericana.

Gregory Sica

Article at Si.com

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