The mad dash is near an end. With 27 spots in Germany secured, we’re in the final, most desperate stages of World Cup ’06 qualification: the playoff rounds for the final five berths.
Win and you’re in, with a chance to mix it up with the world’s best. Lose and you go home a failure, with the next four years to wonder how it came apart.
Soccer-proud Uruguay knows this all too well. It has won the World Cup twice, but has fallen out of the ranks of the world’s elite in recent years. As the fifth-place finishers in South America, the Uruguayans now must play a home-and-away playoff with Australia, the Oceania zone champion (the first leg is in Montevideo on Saturday, the second on Nov. 16 in Sydney).
Australia? Sounds like a breeze, right? Not necessarily. This is an intriguing matchup between one nation trying to regain its status as one of the best in the world and another that is desperately trying to become relevant in world soccer — and it’s knocking on the door (sound familiar, America?). As fans know, this is an unpredictable game that often provides surprising results.
Interestingly enough, this is exactly the same scenario as four years ago. Uruguay was the fifth-place finisher in South America, and Australia won the Oceania zone. For Uruguay, the memories are fond ones — “La Celeste” cruised to a comfortable 3-1 aggregate victory over an inexperienced Australian side, qualifying for its first World Cup since 1990.
Australia has its own memories: The so-called “Socceroos” were cruelly taunted upon their arrival in Montevideo before their painful defeat in the second leg.
Some bitterness lingers, as the Australians are aware they may have to use every trick in the book to overcome a stiff opposition. The Australian federation ruffled some feathers a few weeks ago by refusing Uruguay’s request to move the date of the first leg up by a day, and stating it will have no problem postponing the match if its players’ security in Montevideo is in danger.
Meanwhile, Uruguay won’t admit it, but it’s relieved just to be in the playoffs. The team came close to missing the World Cup altogether with some early stumbles in qualifying, but was able to turn it on in time to edge Colombia and Chile for the coveted fifth spot.
The Uruguayans started their campaign in late 2003 under head coach Juan Carrasco on a promising note, crushing Bolivia 5-0. The success didn’t last long as Uruguay was hammered 4-1 at Paraguay and suffered a shocking 3-0 home loss to Venezuela. Those struggles led to Carrasco’s dismissal and the hiring of current manager Jorge Fossati. But the new coach brought similar results: a humiliating 3-1 home loss to Peru and a 5-0 thrashing at the hands of Colombia.
The poor showing suggested that Uruguayan soccer was back in the doldrums, but Fossati was somehow able to rally his troops to a third-place finish at the Copa America in Peru in the summer of ’04, and a subsequent nine-game undefeated streak in qualifying. Highlights included a 1-1 draw on March 30 against defending World Cup champion Brazil and a historic 1-0 victory last over River Plate rival Argentina month to seal the playoff berth.
Australia is the big fish in the Oceania zone, but it’s trying to qualify for only the second World Cup in its history. The Socceroos cruised into the playoff, winning an extremely weak regional tournament, where they scored 30 times in seven matches while conceding only four goals.
Uruguay presents a challenge that Australia hasn’t yet seen in qualifying. Most of the squad that participated in the ’02 World Cup is back, and the players have grown into a tighter unit and have spent the past four years maturing in the elite leagues of Europe. Uruguay’s laundry list of European stars includes Pablo Garcia and Carlos Diogo of Real Madrid; Alvaro Recoba of Inter Milan; sensational striker Marcelo Zalayeta of Juventus; and goalkeepers Fabian Carini of Cagliari and Sebastian Viera of Villarreal.
Diego Forlan, also with Villareal, is another key player. The ’04-05 European Golden Boot award recipient has become one of the most sought-after strikers in the world — Arsenal is reportedly trying to lure him to London for $28 million. He may be sidelined for the Australia matches, however, with a torn leg muscle.
Add in Paolo Montero, the former Juventus defender now with Argentina’s San Lorenzo. At 34, his best days are behind him, but he is determined to lead Uruguay in what might be his last World Cup.
La Celeste also boasts the likes of Mario Regueiro (Valencia); Diego Lugano (São Paulo); Dario Rodriguez and Gustavo Varela (Shalke 04); Fabian Estoyanoff (Cadiz); Ruben Olivera (Juventus); and Dario Silva (Portsmouth). Not to mention one player the Australians know all too well: Malaga’s Richard Morales, who came off the bench four years ago to end Aussie hopes with a brace.
Fossati has such a wealth of talent at his disposal that he has no place for AS Monaco striker Javier Ernesto Chevanton, who scored five times in the qualifiers.
Does Australia have the firepower to put up a challenge? History suggests it’s highly unlikely. The Socceroos have developed an undesirable tendency to buckle under pressure in big-game situations. This is their fifth appearance in qualification playoffs and they’re still looking for their first win.
There are some promising signs from the Australian camp, however, as it’s been 32 years since their only World Cup appearance. Since the team’s disastrous showing at the Confederations Cup, in which it went winless in three matches and conceded 10 goals, head coach Frank Farina was replaced with Dutch mastermind Guus Hiddink.
Hiddink, of course, currently manages PSV Eindhoven, but he’s also the tactical genius who guided South Korea all the way to the semifinals of the ’02 World Cup. He hasn’t had the time to establish a team worthy of international success, but he’s captaining a much stronger side than the one that collapsed four years ago.
Australia boasts exciting new players such as Parma’s Marco Bresciano and Everton’s attacking midfielder Tim Cahill. Of concern to Australia, however, is the fact that the majority of its stars are reaching the end of their careers: Mark Schwarzer, Tony Vidmar, Stan Lazaridis, Tony Popovic, Danny Tiatto, Scott Chipperfield and Mark Viduka are all 30 or older. Unless Hiddink rotates his side between the two legs, the Socceroos may run out of steam against a Uruguayan side that flourishes with youth.
Another disadvantage for Australia is the fact that most of its players aren’t playing regularly with their respective clubs. Star Harry Kewell has made only a handful of appearances for European champion Liverpool this season, while Viduka, John Aloisi, Lazaridis, Brett Emerton and Popovic have fallen out of favor with their respective managers due to poor performance or injury. Another big blow is that Socceroo captain Craig Moore will miss the playoff after sustaining a hamstring injury.
Not the best way to attack a life-or-death playoff, but at least the Australians are aware that they will have the advantage of playing the second leg at home. If they can pick up a good result in Montevideo, they’ll have a great shot of winning the berth when the sides meet in Sydney’s Telstra Stadium on Nov. 16.
So who will be celebrating next week? History backs Uruguay, but Australia w
ill give it its best shot. This is an opportunity that comes only once every four years, and the stakes couldn’t be higher than they are right now.
Gregory Sica
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