It’s back to business in Argentina, as the Clausura championship kicks off next week.
This should be an intriguing season. Usually, big transfers make up the bulk of offseason news, but most of the hype leading up to kickoff has surrounded the shock resignation of River Plate manager Reinaldo Merlo. There has been relatively little movement in the transfer market.
Even so, it’s easy to get a good idea of who the likely title candidates are: Defending Apertura champions Boca Juniors obviously have a great shot, as do River, Racing Club, Independiente and San Lorenzo. Vélez Sarsfield, Rosario Central and Newell’s Old Boys also have decent chances.
The Apertura’s darling small club was Gimnasia La Plata, which wasn’t eliminated from title contention until the final day of the season. The Clausura’s version of Gimnasia could be Banfield.
Here are my predictions for the top 10 contenders in the Argentine Clausura, in projected order of finish (’05 Apertura finish in parentheses):
1. Boca Juniors (First)
The defending champs come into the season as firm favorites to win back-to-back titles. What plays into Boca’s favor is that they will only have to concentrate on the domestic scene, as they failed to qualify for the ’06 Copa Libertadores. As a result, team manager Alfio Basile has not asked for any reinforcements as of yet, although he’s counting on the return of promising youngster Juan Fischer, who was on loan to Bolivian giant Bolivar.
Boca, which won three trophies last year, including the Copa Sudamericana, has offloaded five players, including former essentials Rolando Schiavi and Diego Cagna.
The Xeneizes are coming off a preseason split with archrival River Plate. They lost 3-0 Tuesday night, but grabbed an impressive 3-2 win last weekend with a mostly complete starting lineup. Once again Boca got an outstanding display from last year’s revelation, striker Rodrigo Palacio, who scored twice.
2. River Plate (sixth)
Under new manager Daniel Passarella, it seems that River can only improve on last year’s horrific run in which it was unable to put up a title challenge in both the Apertura and the Clausura. Merlo’s shock resignation after only four months at the helm may just have been what the club needed, and it seems that Passarella is confident that he will be able to turn around the club’s fortunes.
In midst of the controversy, it seemed that team captain Marcelo Gallardo would also part ways with the club. But after a reunion with president José María Aguilar, he confirmed that he will be staying on.
Other than Gaston Fernandez, who moved to Monterrey, River has kept its key men and has brought in Paulo Ferrari, Juan Carlos Toja, Lucas Pusineri, and Julio César Cáceres. In recent days, the club has announced that it will be adding further reinforcements, and some names that may soon be headed to El Monumental include Luciano Figueroa (Villarreal), Mauro Rosales (Ajax Amsterdam), and Bruno Marioni (Pumas).
Tuesday night’s thrashing of Boca could be a huge boost for the club, as it looks to win its first title since the ’04 Clausura.
3. Racing Club (11th)
It seems that changes are on the horizon for the club from Avellaneda. Not only has Racing signed a four-year contract with Nike, but it has brought in several new faces, including Adrian Bastia, Julio Barroso and Lucas Valdemarin. Signs are looking good for La Academia, and it will be no surprise if it wins its first title since ’01.
Fernando Quiróz, who stepped in as manager halfway through last season, will stay on at the club, as will captain Diego Simeone, who has confirmed that he will be hanging up his boots at the end of the season.
4. Independiente (fourth)
The red half of Avellaneda is aware that it boasts Argentina’s most talented player. Sergio Aguero is an enormous talent and proved this once again with an outstanding double that helped his side overcome River Plate in a tense preseason match last week.
Although the club has brought in talented midfielder Gaston Machin from Argentinos, it offloaded a large number of key players as well, which may play against the Red Devils the later part of the tournament. The club did a similar thing during last year’s Apertura, selling scoring leader Nicolas Frutos to Anderlecht, even though the squad was in competition for the title. The move backfired because Independiente lacked sufficient attacking firepower and bowed out of the title race.
5. San Lorenzo (ninth)
The Ciclón was the biggest disappointment last year. It finished poorly in the Clausura, but spent big money in the lead-up to the Apertura, signing Paolo Montero, José Cardozo and Sebastián Saja. The squad came into the race as huge contenders and started off brilliantly, going undefeated until the eighth round and earning a memorable 3-2 victory over Boca. But San Lorenzo’s good form didn’t last and it slumped to ninth in the standings.
This year, much is expected from Gustavo Alfaro‘s side, but it will have to make do without influential leader Eduardo Coudet, who signed with Rosario Central. His replacement is talented youngster Osmar Ferreyra, who returned to Argentina after a stint with PSV Eindhoven.
Ferreyra couldn’t have had a better San Lorenzo debut, opening the scoring with a trademark free kick as his side thumped Independiente 4-0 in a recent preseason outing.
6. Vélez Sarsfield (third)
Last year’s Clausura champions are a good bet to challenge for the title, unless they experience another injury-plagued season. Key players Lucas Castromán, Marcelo Bravo, Rolando Zárate and Claudio Enría were out for much of the Apertura, but still the club finished in third place, outlining the potential of the club from Buenos Aires’ Liniers district.
You’d think the club directors would have learned from their mistake of having a small squad. But budgets are tight and Vélez has yet to make a new signing, although it can finally count on all of last year’s players being healthy (minus Lucas Valdemarín, who was transferred to Racing). Even so, Vélez’s participation in the Copa Libertadores is likely to drastically reduce its chances of achieving domestic glory.
7. Newell’s Old Boys (16th)
This a squad with a wealth of potential, but it didn’t translate to the field last year. Perhaps keeping its core intact will help — the ’04 Apertura champions withheld pressure from River Plate and succeeded in keeping midfielders Fernando Belluschi and Ariel Ortega, a pair that is said to be worth almost $10 million.
Although Newell’s offloaded five players during the offseason, including Uruguayan target man Santiago Silva, it has signed only one new player to date, Paraguayan international Diego Gavilan. But like Vélez, the extra pressure of Copa Libertadores during the season may outshine Newell’s ability to compete domestically.
8. Rosario Central (15th)
Almost a third of last season’s squad has moved on, including key men Ferrari (to River) and Emanuel Villa. In their place are Coudet, Juan Eluchans and Bolivian pair Ronald Arana and Jose Castillo. Like bitter rivals Newell’s, the Canallas also will compete in the Libertadores, and it is unlikely they’ll hav
e the resources to stay competitive on both fronts. It’s too bad because, despite a misleading 15-place finish last season, this is a club that plays one of the most attractive styles of soccer in the country and much more is expected from them this year.
9. Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata (second)
El Lobo came tantalizingly close to winning its first national title in its 118-year history last season, but the men of Gimnasia came undone in the final weeks of the season and were edged out by Boca Juniors. It was a huge disappointment for Pedro Troglio‘s side, which earlier in the year went 12 matches without tasting defeat. Although Gimnasia has kept the bulk of last season’s side, star midfielder Lucas Lobos was transferred to Cádiz of Spain, a huge blow that is likely to affect the team’s performance.
10. Banfield (fifth)
This is a club that has grown in prominence in recent years, thanks to its good collective play, consistency and outstanding home record. Last year was the most successful in club history: El Taladro reached the quarterfinals of the Libertadores and finished second in the Clausura. But the sale of key players Daniel Bilos, Andres San Martin and Antonio Barijho meant that Banfield had to resort to a fifth-place finish in the subsequent Apertura. Carlos Leeb‘s side will be similar to last season’s version, but it will welcome the return of Barijho from Barcelona of Ecuador.
Gregory Sica
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