Look who’s back. River Plate put an exclamation point on the preseason Thursday night with a second straight victory against archrival Boca Juniors. It may have been by penalty shootout (after a 1-1 deadlock), but one thing’s for certain: River will be the real deal this season.
The Millonarios look destined to turn it round after some recent disappointments with a vastly improved squad. They finished the preseason undefeated (three wins and two draws) and, most importantly, proved themselves superior to Boca with two impressive wins.
Daniel Passarella‘s side should be a strong title contender this season, but they can’t get carried away yet. Several other clubs will put up a challenge — Boca, Vélez Sársfield and Independiente.
Here is my forecast for the top 10 contenders in the Argentine 2007 Clausura in the order of predicted finish.
1. River Plate
Is this finally River’s year. Passarella was first to point out that if River wants to be a real threat, it must make a stand in the transfer market — and that’s exactly what it did. River may have offloaded two of its biggest stars in Gonzalo Higuaín and Marcelo Gallardo, but the club used that cash to bring in several reinforcements including Leonardo Ponzio, Nelson Rivas, Cristian Villagra and Marco Ruben, as well as Diego Galván and Gastón Fernández, who return from loans. But Passarella still insists on more signings, and it’s just a matter of time before River seals the signing of Mauro Rosales from Ajax Amsterdam.
The Verdict: Despite the reinforcements, team captain Fernando Belluschi will play a key role as River wins its first title in three years.
2. Vélez Sársfield
New manager Ricardo La Volpe will have the opportunity to prove himself again after a miserable three months at Boca. In recent years, Vélez has consolidated itself as Argentina’s strongest club outside the “big five,” and much is expected of it this year. Even though it rarely makes any big signings, fans are more than aware that their team has enough talent to put up a strong title challenge. La Volpe says his team will play entertaining, attacking soccer, and El Fortín can count on the services of Mauro Zárate, the most exciting striker in the competition.
The Verdict: La Volpe will rebound as Vélez challenges River down to the wire.
3. Boca Juniors
Los Xeneizes look to put behind them a devastating Apertura that saw them finish second to Estudiantes after losing their last three matches. That disappointment meant La Volpe had to go, and much is expected of his replacement, Miguel Ángel Russo, the manager who brought Vélez the ’05 Clausura title. Thanks to the $26.3 million sale of Fernando Gago to Real Madrid, Boca was able to reinforce its squad with a list that includes Bruno Marioni, Sergio Orteman and Clemente Rodríguez. And if that isn’t enough, Russo will also have options in emerging talents Matías Cahais and Ever Banegas, players who helped Argentina qualify for the ’08 Olympics last weekend.
The Verdict: Boca will do well, but will put most of its efforts towards winning the Copa Libertadores.
4. Independiente
Los Diablos Rojos expect to consolidate themselves as one of Argentina’s strongest teams, and have enough talent to do so. Jorge Burruchaga‘s side remains much the same as the one that finished fourth last season. Although they have been relatively quiet in the transfer market so far, they’ve made an important signing in Colombian striker José Moreno from América de Cali. Several Colombians have done well at the club in the past, and many expect Moreno will help bring the club some of its past glory. Outstanding striker Daniel Montenegro is the team’s main inspiration, as he proved in an impressive preseason that saw the club defeat Boca and draw with River.
The Verdict: Independiente will start slow, but will turn it around and make a challenge.
5. Banfield
Banfield will look to improve on a disappointing Apertura that saw it finish in 15th place in the league table. This is a club with a relatively small budget compared to most of its Buenos Aires rivals, but the club directors went out of their way this past season to help the team become competitive again, particularly as El Taladro participates in the Libertadores. New acquisitions include José Chatruc, Pablo Vitti, Julián Maidana, Daniel Quinteros and Javier Villarreal (all players who have done well at their previous clubs).
The Verdict: The surprise team of the competition. Banfield could well be a real title contender.
6. Racing Club
Racing always seems to promise a lot at the beginning, but ends up fading as the season progresses. And from what we’ve seen in the preseason competition, that won’t change. The strange thing is Racing actually boasts a good squad with huge potential. Claudio López, a player who can decide matches on his own, returns to the club where he turned professional 11 years ago. Time will tell if he can make as much of an impact on Racing as Juan Sebastián Verón did with Estudiantes last season.
The Verdict: Potential is there to be another surprise.
7. Estudiantes de La Plata
Estudiantes still maintain the backbone of the team that went undefeated for 13 matches in the Apertura before clinching the title after a playoff victory against Boca. Verón has already stated that the club must continue its leap up the Argentine hierarchy, and if AC Milan target Mariano Pavone is as lethal as he was last year, Estudiantes could again be the league’s protagonist. But will the champions tag affect them? Every club will aim to bring them down, and Estudiantes don’t have the depth to maintain last season’s regularity.
The Verdict: Estudiantes will be a tough opponent, but won’t be able to reproduce last season’s magic.
8. San Lorenzo
The appointment of Ramón Díaz as the club’s new manager may have brought fans some optimism, but unless San Lorenzo directors find a way to bring in reinforcements, it could be another miserable season for a club that has become accustomed to failure. After San Lorenzo’s poor showing in the preseason, Díaz is concerned that his side doesn’t have the competitive edge. But the good news is that San Lorenzo was able to resist pressure from River for Ezequiel Lavezzi, who will pair up with prolific striker Andrés Silvera.
The Verdict: El Ciclón boasts one of the deadliest attacks in the competition, but has a big problem in defense.
9. Rosario Central
Central is currently in the midst of a massive rebuilding process after having axed a staggering 12 players. Surprisingly, many of those players had formerly been essential members of the squad, such as Eduardo Coudet, Paulo Wanchope, Marco Ruben, Cristian Villagra and Germán Rivarola. But what makes matters worse is that just a week before its league debut against Belgrano, manager Néstor Gorosito is having difficulty finding replacements. Unless Central is able to make some quick signings, the club will be in for a very long season.
The Verdict: The huge exodus of key players means Central will struggle all season.
10. Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
Somehow, Pedro Troglio remains at the helm, although he should have been dismissed last season after two humiliating results: a 7-0 defeat to rival Estudiantes and a 6-1 aggregate loss to Colo-Colo in the Copa Sudamericana. But the basis of last season’s team has moved on, and the club directors were able to bring in some fresh faces that included Uruguayan strikers Sergio Leal and Antonio Pacheco. Although El Lobo will be stronger than last season, it will probably struggle again as it plays a Libertadores schedule at the same time.
The Verdict: Likely to improve on last year’s humiliating season, but it won’t be pretty.
Gregory Sica
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