Not so long ago, Argentine clubs owned the Copa Libertadores. Since the competition’s inception in 1960, seven different Argentine teams have hoisted the trophy 20 times, far more than clubs from any other nation — including Brazil.
Independiente is the Libertadores’ all-time king, with a record seven titles. But since 1994, the only other Argentine club outside of five-time champion Boca Juniors to lifted the trophy was River Plate in ’96.
Since then, Brazilian clubs have dominated, and it seems as if the trend will continue this year: Five out of the six Brazilian clubs advanced to the final 16 of the competition, compared to only two of the five Argentine clubs.
To make matters worse, the two remaining Argentine clubs (Boca Juniors and Vélez Sarsfield) will do battle in in what is expected to be the most fascinating encounter in the round of 16, which kicks off Wednesday night. The other mouth-watering matchup is the all-Brazilian showdown between past winners São Paulo and Grêmio of Porto Alegre.
Here’s a look at all eight matchups, with my picks and a best-of-five-stars rating for how good the action should be.
Santos (1) vs. Caracas (16)
First meets last, it’s as easy as that. This promises to be the most one-sided match of the round, considering that Santos has won all eight of its Libertadores matches by a combined score of 18-1. Caracas, on the other hand, only scraped into the last 16, but is motivated by the fact that it ousted Argentine powerhouse River Plate to get there. Still, another upset is highly unlikely.
Rating: Three stars
The pick: Santos
Colo-Colo (8) vs. Club América (9)
This is a potential classic between two giants that play a similar style. Both clubs encountered enormous difficulties before ensuring their final passage to the last 16, but both seem capable enough to reach the decisive stages of the competition, particularly because of their overall depth. But the similarities don’t end there. Much of their success depends on the form of their top scorers: América’s Salvador Cabañas and Colo-Colo’s Humberto Suazo. The series is likely to be decided by one of these names.
Rating: Four stars
The pick: Colo-Colo
Flamengo (2) vs. Defensor Sporting (15)
Brazil’s most popular club must have been relieved by the opportunity to face the low-profile Uruguayans from the Parque Rodó. The Rubro-Negro has returned to the last 16 of the competition after 14 years, and has everything in its favor to reach the final eight, especially if it makes the most of the Maracanã’s intimidating atmosphere. But in order for this to happen, Flamengo can’t underestimate its less glamorous opponent. Defensor has come to life in recent continental competitions, and although it may lack quality, it makes up for it with a never-say-die attitude.
Rating: Three stars
The pick: Flamengo
Grêmio (7) vs. São Paulo (10)
It’s survival of the fittest. The Libertadores has been characterized by flamboyant all-Brazilian affairs over the years, including the finals of the last two editions. And this matchup is no exception. Both sides have demonstrated that they have enough talent to proceed to the final stages, and although most would back three-time winner São Paulo, the southerners are no slouches when it comes to these types of matches. An extra ingredient to spice up the matchup is that former São Paulo hero Amoroso will be defending the colors of Grêmio.
Rating: Five stars
The pick: São Paulo
Vélez Sársfield (6) vs. Boca Juniors (11)
If someone had asked Boca manager Miguel Ángel Russo which club he would have liked to avoid in the last 16, he would have surely picked the team he used to coach. It’s no secret that over the last few years, Vélez has consolidated itself as the second most-powerful club in Argentina. But the Fortín face a daunting task against a well-reinforced Boca side. Los Xeneizes may be highly inconsistent, but are fresh off an emphatic 7-0 demolition of Bolívar last week. Juan Román Riquelme‘s team is still the most complete in the competition, but will have to be at its best in order to overcome Vélez. Adding to the drama? The man who took Ángel’s place at Vélez is Ricardo Lavolpe, the scapegoat in Boca’s late-season collapse last year.
Rating: Five stars
The pick: Boca
Libertad (3) vs. Paraná (14)
This match brings together two sides with highly contrasting styles of play. On one side we have Libertad, the ruthless Paraguayans who like to play on the counterattack; on the other, a highly entertaining Paraná side. From both teams’ displays so far in the competition, it’s difficult to know what to expect from the series. Libertad has more experience at this level, but you can be sure that the Brazilians will give it all they’ve got.
Rating: Three stars
The pick: Paraná
Necaxa (5) vs. Nacional (12)
Nacional has reestablished itself as a leading club with some impressive campaigns over the last couple of years. This season, it has continued its gradual improvement after eliminating defending Libertadores (and Club World Cup) champion Internacional from the Group of Death. But Nacional will come into its clash with Necaxa on a low after a devastating 3-0 defeat at the hands of bitter rivals Peñarol in the Uruguayan Clásico last Sunday. Unless it recovers from that heavy defeat, Nacional will struggle against a solid Mexican side that will be boosted by the return to form of prolific Brazilian striker Kléber Boas.
Rating: Four stars
The pick: Nacional
Toluca (4) vs. Cúcuta Deportivo (13)
This is probably the least attractive matchup of the round of 16, pitting two clubs with no Libertadores history. Regardless, it still promises to be an intriguing contest, as both clubs have a lot to prove. Cúcuta clinched its spot with a stunning 4-3 victory over fellow Colombian club Deportes Tolima, while Toluca edged Boca for first place in its group. Expect an even contest, but if form means anything, Toluca will advance.
Rating: Two stars
The pick: Toluca
Gregory Sica
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