When you think of World Cup qualifying, what usually comes to mind are the predictable matchups between the world’s major powers and teams that don’t even deserve to be on the same field. (Italy vs. the Faroe Islands, anyone?)
But in South America, it’s a completely different story. The gap between the top and bottom teams has shrunk quickly, and the level of the competition is now of the highest order. All but one of the 10 countries on the continent have appeared in previous World Cups, and each one of them has the potential to reach South Africa in 2010.
As a result, the South American confederation (CONMEBOL) has decided to stick with the same format in which each team will play one another both home and away over a two-year period. From the bunch, Brazil and Argentina are obviously expected to secure a spot in South Africa, while the remaining two automatic berths are open to any of the other eight teams.
It’s hard to believe, but the long road begins on Saturday when South American World Cup qualifying gets underway. It should be a very entertaining competition between some of the best teams that have emerged from the continent in recent years. Here’s what to expect.
Most significant players
If you consider the abundance of talent that will be on display, a high standard of soccer is essentially guaranteed. South America boasts no less than the top three players in the world right now: Kaká, Lionel Messi and Ronaldinho. The likes of Diego Forlán, Robinho, Carlos Tévez, Júlio Baptista, Daniel Alves, Gabriel Heinze, Edison Méndez, Sergio Agüero and Claudio Pizarro aren’t far behind.
But one player who should rise to worldwide prominence during the qualifiers is Brazil’s Afonso Alves, who plays his club soccer for SC Heerenveen of the Netherlands. Last Sunday, the striker scored seven goals (yes, seven) against Heracles Almelo in the Dutch first division. It’s just a matter of time before the “new Ronaldo” is snapped up by one of Europe’s major clubs.
Most exciting team
Despite the fact that Argentina hasn’t won a senior international trophy in more than 14 years, it has still produced several outstanding players. Currently it probably boasts the greatest player it has had since Diego Maradona: Messi.
“The Flea” has been in sensational form for Barcelona so far this season. But it isn’t only his extraordinary individual skill that has caught the eye in recent months, but his ability to find the back of the net on a regular basis. When you add the likes of Tévez, Agüero, and Juan Román Riquelme to the lineup, Argentina is, by a mile, the most creative team on the planet.
The revelation
As I said in my last column, my choice for the biggest surprise is Chile. La Roja is a highly skilled unit, and if Marcelo Bielsa is able to get the most out of his players, they could be unstoppable. Much of this depends on the effectiveness of the strikers Bielsa has at his disposal, particularly Humberto Suazo, who has become the team’s central figure. If Chile is able to pick up a positive result in Buenos Aires on Saturday, it could be the real deal.
Top matchups
The Brazil-Argentina classic is without doubt the biggest rivalry in world soccer. These proud nations absolutely hate each others’ guts, and this often translates onto the field.
Brazil has the edge on its rival, having beaten it to the Copa América title in successive competitions, including a 3-0 demolition in the title decider this summer. But in qualifying, it has been even, as both won 3-1 when playing at home en route to Germany ’06.
Showdowns between geographical neighbors Argentina and Uruguay always live up to expectations. Since Uruguay beat Argentina 4-2 in the 1930 World Cup final, there has been a huge rivalry between the nations. These days, Argentina is clearly the better team, but this doesn’t mean the rivalry has lost any of its prominence.
If there’s one team Brazil can never beat, it’s Uruguay. The Uruguayans upset the Brazilians in the 1950 World Cup final at the Maracanã stadium in Rio de Janeiro, and ever since that victory, Uruguay has had the upper hand. It has remained undefeated in its last four World Cup qualifiers against the Brazilians, but has gone out on penalty shootouts in the last two editions of the Copa América.
The golden boot
The battle for the top scorer in qualifying is almost as wide open as the race itself. Real Madrid’s Robinho was the top scorer in the Copa América (six goals in six games) and is one of the favorites. Then there’s the likes of Ronaldinho, Kaká, Forlán, Messi, Tévez, Paraguay’s Roque Santa Cruz and the always-present Argentine veteran Hernán Crespo.
As the matches get underway, Alfio Basile is likely to unveil Argentina’s latest gem: Independiente’s Germán Denis, the leading scorer in the Argentine Apertura championship (a staggering 15 goals in 13 league matches).
Another player that should make an impact is Radamel Falcão García of Colombia. The River Plate striker has been in sensational form in recent weeks and scored the first goal in the 2-0 victory over archrivals Boca Juniors last Sunday.
Personally, I’d like to see Alves reach his peak with Brazil. But it’s much too early to tell if he will become the most prolific striker since Ronaldo. Speaking of “The Phenomenon,” will he ever get another opportunity with the Seleção? I surely hope so.
Who will qualify?
It’s no secret: Expect a two-horse title race between Argentina and Brazil. They are both clearly superior to the rest of the teams, and should find themselves neck and neck throughout the competition.
The remaining two automatic berths are really open to any of the other teams in the group, maybe except for Bolivia. Most would have backed Ecuador and Paraguay to qualify, but after their less-than-impressive displays in the Copa América that has changed somewhat. Uruguay and Peru have improved enormously in recent months and if they find their top form early on in the competition both should qualify.
The dark horse could be Chile. La Roja promises a lot in this campaign, but should settle to finish in fifth. If it does, it would meet the fourth-place team from CONCACAF (Guatemala? Panama? Canada?) in a playoff for a spot in South Africa.
Gregory Sica
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